The Obama Comeback: The President’s Competitive Edge
A fortnight ago, the President took, as he might put it, a shellacking. He failed to perform at the worst possible moment. Don’t expect the same thing to happen tonight. Competitive by nature, he is likely to be more aggressive this evening, hitting his opponent on his ‘47%’ comments and his time at Bain Capital. The signal of his intent is best revealed by the fact that the most frequent advice he has been getting from his aides is not to overcompensate. Barack can’t be seen as the bully, but he must be seen to fight.
Great Expectations: Role Reversal
Unlike in the first debate, where the expectation was that the President would emerge the winner, the roles have since been reversed. This could prove troublesome for Romney, who isn’t used to being in the lead. Most likely – unless the President puts in another disaster of a performance – the Republican will be unable to achieve a clear victory like he did two weeks ago. A solid performance without any glaring errors will be what he is looking for, whilst trying to coax the President into overreaching. Expect to see Romney falling back on what made his first debate so successful, adopting his natural businessman style and listing off his ideas in clear, sharp, numbered points.
Awkward Romney: Talking With Average Joes
It is well known Mitt doesn’t always do that well with the ‘normal’ person. When you’re worth somewhere in the region of a quarter-of-a-billion dollars, that maybe isn’t surprising. But being out of touch – or being perceived to be out of touch – can be devastating for a politician, particularly on live television in front of tens of millions of viewers. In the first debate, this was less of a problem, but this time round the event in a ‘town hall’ format, where regular, undecided voters ask the questions. If Romney fails to connect, it will only help drive home what the Obama team have been saying for months: he’s an out-of-touch plutocrat. If you want to see how bad this could be, you need only to refer to George H. W. Bush in 1992, in his debate against Bill Clinton.
The Unpredictable Third Wheel: Candy Crowley
CNN’s Candy Crowley, who will be moderating this debate, has caused anxiety amongst both candidates’ camps with her comments this week. Despite the fact that the rules negotiated by the campaigns and CNN prevent the moderator from asking follow up questions, Crowley has suggested she won’t allow Obama or Romney to simply reel off talking points and will play a more active role than Jim Lehrer did two weeks ago. Whilst this may invite the ire of both campaigns, she will probably win favour with the public, who enjoy seeing their overly smooth politicians knocked off their stride.
The Consensus: The Herd Mentality
Perhaps more than any other type of journalism, political reporters tends to very quickly come together to form a consensus about what they have just seen. This will be no different tonight. Within twenty-four hours of the debate finishing, the consensus will have hardened into the conventional wisdom and will frame the narrative for the relentless news-cycle. The crucial point here is that it is often the reaction of the media to the debate – rather than the debate itself – that is most important in shaping the public’s response.
The Aftermath: Ohio – Barack’s Bastion
Romney has gained in leaps and strides across nearly all battleground polls in the past two weeks. All, that is, except for Ohio. Despite a number of polls showing him up nationally, the electoral map still favours Obama, who holds a 4-5 point lead in the Buckeye state. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio and Romney is unlikely to do so this year. At the weekend, when a number of post-debate polls have come out, look for movement in Ohio. If Obama holds steady, he will still have the edge. Although only just.