There is no doubt that cinema has had one hell of a year, with filmmakers pushing the boundaries in storytelling, and actors/actresses seemingly more committed than ever to deliver performances of a lifetime – but only a handful can emerge victorious. The ceremony is set to be full of twists and turns, but here are my predictions for who could make history in the five big awards of the night…
Best Picture – Conclave (directed by Edward Berger, produced by Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross & Juliette Howell)
With director Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front being a smash hit during 2022’s award season, it comes as no surprise that his latest film, Conclave, is taking this season by storm. Starring Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence, the plot is reminiscent of 12 Angry Men, or even Mean Girls, as leaders of the Catholic Church battle it out to become the next Pope. But not even the Church itself is immune to the scandalous and petty behaviour that we frown upon, it is rife with it! It’s a film rich in both its visuals and its acting, but where it truly exceeds is in its pacing. Every twist and turn is reminiscent of your classic 1970s political thriller, but it’s not afraid to have the camera linger for a while, as if God is in the room with us, watching. The film expresses the need for societal change, all the while being utterly afraid of its next move, truly making Conclave a timeless masterpiece.
Best Director – Sean Baker, Anora
After winning the highly prestigious Directors Guild Award (DGA), Baker has emerged as the frontrunner to win the Oscar for directing Anora, which follows a young sex worker (Mikey Madison) who gets caught up in a fairytale romance with a son of an oligarch (Mark Eydelshteyn). Similar to Baker’s film The Florida Project (2017), Anora is a testament to Baker’s ability to explore the lives of marginalised characters that studios in Hollywood often fail to acknowledge. His filmmaking is immersive, with Anora having an uncanny ability to plunge its audience into a reality that navigates the complex emotions which make us human. Anora may very well get its Cinderella ending on Oscar night after all.
Best Actress – Demi Moore, The Substance
For me, it was a tough call between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison, but I think Moore just about clinches it. She takes on the leading role of an aging actress who is desperate to stay in the limelight, causing her to inject herself with a substance that turns her into a younger, picture-perfect version of herself (played by Margaret Qualley). Moore’s performance is unrecognisable, repulsive even, but that’s what makes it so brilliant. She brings a ferocity to the body horror genre, going deep into the demonisation of her character. A win for Moore in many ways would be a fairytale ending; after being labelled as a “popcorn actor” in her earlier career, she has paved the way for women, of any age, to never stop chasing their dreams!
Best Actor – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Whilst I wasn’t the biggest fan of The Brutalist, Adrien Brody deserves all the praise he has racked up this award season, putting him on track to finish with a bang at the Oscars. He plays Hungarian architect Lazlo Toth, a Holocaust survivor who has emigrated to America in the hope of rebuilding his life, his work and his marriage. His performance embodies the trauma his character has faced, showcasing a shell of the man he perhaps once was – but scene after scene, Brody delivers an intense sense of yearning to make something of himself, which ultimately has the power to make or break his character. His performance is extraordinary as the character he plays, and makes him very much deserving of the Oscar.
Best Original Screenplay – A Real Pain, written by Jesse Eisenberg
Despite missing out on a Best Picture nominee, Eisenberg’s A Real Pain is lining up to be the favourite to take home the Oscar this year for Best Original Screenplay, and I can’t say I’m not happy about it! The film follows two cousins who reunite to take a tour through Poland in memory of their grandmother who survived the Holocaust. Eisenberg’s screenplay sets up the two cousins to be polar opposites, and yet they both yearn to be more like the other. The dialogue is charged with an emotional complexity that allows its characters, particularly Benji (Kieran Culkin), to express himself in ways he may not even fully understand himself, allowing Eisenberg to shine a light on an irony that others shy away from confronting. A Real Pain doesn’t try to pit one person’s pain against another, but instead seeks to find the root cause of the universal struggle that comes with the human experience, making it a deeply personal journey which still manages to speak to a void that so many of us encounter.
The Oscars will be streamed on ITV1 and ITVX on the 3rd March 2025 at 12:00am GMT.
Love this article Liv!