During Trump’s first term of Presidency, the Middle East saw a number of firm policies namely: the US pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and the naming of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. These staunchly pro-Israel policies, along with harsh sanctions placed on the Middle East, have left many wondering how pragmatic the Trump administration will be in its policies towards Gaza.
The US has remained a firm supporter of Israel throughout the conflict. When, on 1st October, Iran carried out a missile attack which fired over 180 missiles at Israel’s air bases, the USA threatened that there would be “consequences” for any further Iranian attacks in the region.
The USA’s continued support in the region is due to a number of reasons, including oil prices, pro-Israel lobbying, and public opinion. A study conducted by Gallup in 2012 showed that 64% of Americans sympathise with Israelis in the event of conflict, where only 12% sympathise with Palestinians. This not only determines the direction of legislation in the Middle East, but aligns with crucial policies brought to Congress by lobbyists.
Trump will undoubtedly continue to support Israel. In his first term, Trump’s foreign policy towards the Middle East (at a time of peace nonetheless) aligned with Israel, symbolised by his decision to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv. This isolated Palestine and signalled the USA’s abandonment of a Palestinian claim to the right to land in Israel.
Yet, the danger within Trump’s foreign policies lies in his unpredictability. Within his first term, Trump often risked instability in making strong and decisive decisions, something which may prove unsettling in a time of conflict. When warned of the implications of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Trump acted strongly and was vindicated in his actions. At times of peace, tough decisions and brutal foreign policy can provide clarity and stability; in times of internal conflict, they can foster greater divides.
Trump’s foreign policies are often hard to analyse; they can be affected by a number of different opinions and are wholly unpredictable. The incoming administration’s relationship with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is complex and interchangeable, with Trump also fostering relations with top Arab leaders and generals. For this reason, it is difficult to predict where Trump will stand in relation to Gaza.
Previously, Trump has publicly stated that he wants the war in Gaza to come to an end. Yet, this will come down to his own diplomatic unpredictability, which is at times an asset. How this unpredictability will influence policy in a time of conflict is another matter.
Trump enters the White House inheriting a vastly different situation to that which he presided over from 2017-2021. Political analysts and foreign leaders alike will be left guessing over Trump’s volatile foreign policy. Whether he will be more diplomatically pragmatic or instead inflame the Middle Eastern crucible will quickly become evident. . This has the capability to further isolate the US from its European allies, especially in relation to the Middle East, due to their inability to predict Trump’s direction on policy.
In times of peace, Trump’s foreign policy was occasionally an asset, but often unpredictable and risky. In times of unrest, the stakes are higher and Trump’s mercurial foreign policy may stifle the momentum of the peace movement in the Middle East, whilst further alienating the USA from its allies.