Stay tuned for live updates on the US election which will decide the next President of the United States of America. The polls will close in less than two hours (12am UK time) and the first state result is due to come in at 1am. Politicians are predicting a long night and a couple of days ahead and York Vision will be here to give you the full rundown of events.
The polls will close at different times in each state, with the last ones closing in Western Alaska. Typically, votes cast on the day are counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots. This year, early voting has been especially high so counting might take longer than usual.
These are the seven swing states: Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
23.00 – One hour until the first voting close.
Pennsylvania, one of the seven swing states with the ability to push the results in a certain direction, is one of the states with a slower turnaround, despite its significant influence. Under Pennsylvania law, though early ballots can be cast by voters, these can not be counted until 7am on election day, leading to a much longer turnaround. However the turnaround is expected to be quicker this year.
23:12 – Currently, the republicans only have a two seat majority.
23:18 – Update from Washington, with the Kamala Harris camp. Some students at Howard University, a historically black college that, despite the expected majority support for Harris, have voiced their uncertainty on the election, not being fully convinced by Harris’ campaign. Some of the students have reported their inclination to not vote at all.
23.27 – The Georgia polls will not be closed until 7.45pm Eastern time. Times have been extended by an extra 45 minutes due to non-credible bomb threats, five in Atlanta, Georgia alone.
23.29 – 10 polling stations have extended their opening times in Georgia.
23.45 – Two precincts in Carolina have extended their voting hours due to technical difficulties in the western region.
Early exit polls suggest that democracy and the economy are among some of the most important issues for voters.
According to an American exit poll, when asked ‘who do you trust more with the economy?’ 47% of people said Harris and 51% of people voted for Trump.
00.02 – The first polls have closed in a handle of states including Georgia (a swing state), Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, Vermont, South Carolina. Kentucky (8) projected for Trump. Vermont (3) projected for Harris
00:06 – Some broadcasters are projecting Indiana for Trump. Updates on Georgia will follow shortly.
00:17 – Indiana results are suggesting that there’s been an 8-point swing to Harris in suburban areas. The next polls will close in 9 minutes.
00.18 – Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that early vote results are expected in Georgia within the hour (01.00am).
00.26 – Polls have closed in some parts of Florida, Lewis.
00.30 – North Carolina (a swing state) polls have closed.
00:41 – Independent voters have reported a 10% swing to Trump, and, as predicted, Trump has outperformed with black men, a demographic that the Democrats historically took for granted. White women have been reported to be swinging further than expected to Kamala Harris.
01:00 – Florida (30), Alabama (10), Missouri (10), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11) have been called by CNN for Trump. Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10) and District of Columbia (3) have all gone for Harris. Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island are all too early to call. So far, there is 27 to Harris and 90 to Trump.
01.03 – Trump is the projected winner in Florida.
01:05 – North Carolina women have been, unexpectedly, quite a worry for Harris. Additionally, it appears that in abortion referendums – a campaign issue Harris has managed to lead – in Florida, pro-choice voters appear to be picking “yes” but not necessarily voting for Harris at the same time.
We’re looking at a small set of data still, but it appears nationally Trump has overperformed with white women in a way he did in 2016 but not so much in 2020.
01.14 – In Pennsylvania, 75.7% Harris and 23.2% Trump.
01:17 – New gender and race poles reveal that Trump leads Harris with white men (59% vs 39%) and white women (51% vs 47%). Harris leads Trump with Black men (79% vs 19%) and black women (92% vs 17%). Trump leads with Latino men ( 54% vs 44%) whilst Harris leads Latino women (62% vs 37%). For all other races Harris Leads Trump (49% vs 45%).
01:23 – Texas is not a state expected to flip, especially not this year, but one of the interesting subplots of this election has been a Texas Senate race, where Republican Ted Cruz is running for re-election against a much more youthful, Colin Allred. The latter appears to have 50.9% of the vote against Cruz’s 47.2%, with around a third of the votes in – far too early to call, but well within the possibility that this may be a win for the Democrats there.
01.24 – Ohio state is still too early to call.
01:30 – Arkansas (6 votes) and South Carolina (9) called for Trump.
01:35 – Some outlets, including the Associated Press, are now calling Delaware (3), Connecticut (7) and Rhode Island (4) for Harris. South Carolina (9) and Mississippi (6) are called for Trump. Harris 52; Trump 105.
01:49 – It’s not looking great for Democrats in Georgia: 44% for Harris to 55% for Trump. There are Democrat counties that have kept voting open for longer.
02:00 – Trump gets 40 votes from Texas, 3 each from the Dakotas, 3 for Wyoming. No calls for Harris at this time from CNN. Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York and Wisconsin are too early to call at this stage. 27 votes for Harris against 154 for Trump.
In the North Carolina gubernatorial election, there has been a projection that the Democrats’ Josh Stein is winning by around thirteen percentage points. One may remember that the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Mark Robinson has had a chequered social media past, embroiled in anti-Semitism controversies and calling himself a “black Nazi”. Nonetheless, Trump is up 4 percentage points in that state.
02:27 – It’s looking increasingly worrying for Harris. She has 53 votes to Trump’s 154, as Illnois (19) and Rhode Island (4) have been called for her. North Carolina appears to go to Harris. Pennsylvania and Michigan have a slight Trump lead.
02:36 – Many Democrats suspected that abortion might provide a good turnout for Democrats, after the 2022 midterms, where the ‘red wave’ of Republican wins didn’t materialise. It increasingly seems that quite the opposite is happening. Harris is losing ground in key demographics that she needed to win: among black and Latino voters she still commands a good lead but is down 10 and 5 percentage points respectively, and in an election that will be decided by thousands of votes in key swing states, that could be a problem. Harris has 81 electoral votes to Trump’s 154 now that New York (28) has been called, and no major network has called North Carolina for Trump.
A more encouraging side note for Harris: some networks have started suggesting she could win Pennsylvania. Michigan is a toss-up, and while Georgia has seemingly gone definitively red, Arizona is still up in the air. With Pennsylvania, and if Michigan and Wisconsin follow, she could still get over the 270 line. The next polls close in just over 15 minutes.
03:00 – Montana (4) and Utah (6) are called for Trump as he pulls in towards the 200 mark. Nevada (6), a key swing state Trump narrowly lost in 2016 and 2020, is too close to call. Harris 81, Trump 172. The New York Times narrowly projects Michigan and Wisconsin to go for Trump, who they suggest will win the election with 276 electoral votes to Harris’ 262 (although they have been wrong at this stage before).
On a side note, Delaware has also elected the first transgender senator; and for the first time there will also be two black women in the Senate.
03:35 – Meanwhile, at the University of York, many students are watching the election live at Courtyard. Reports tell us that the atmosphere there was certainly pro-Harris (or more accurately, anti-Trump).
When Vision asked the attendees about how they thought the night had gone, a theme of “disappointing” among Harris supporters was clear; another one described the night as: “frightening”. Vision was unable to speak to any Trump supporters at Courtyard.
It was there that the night ended, with a clear winner in the lecture theatre, if not the other side of the pond. Harris 91; Trump 207.
03:53 – The momentum is certainly with Trump now and discussion is moving from “this could go either way” to “what will happen with President Trump for the next four years?”. The youth vote has slipped away from the Democrats and they haven’t made the gains with women that they needed. Perhaps, to paraphrase a 1992 election refrain: “It’s inflation, stupid.”
04:00 – Harris bags California’s 54 votes. Idaho gives Trump 4 votes. Washington (12) and Oregon (8) are too early to call. Trump 211, Harris 145.
04:05 – Georgia is leaning very much to Trump and the youth vote has swung heavily in his direction – winning the popular vote is not out of the question. Democrats could also lose the Senate, regardless of whether the White House looks improbable. Florida’s referendum on guaranteeing an abortion right looks to have failed, although 57% voted for it, the referendum had a 60% quota.
04:15 – Oregon (8) is projected for Harris.
04:26 – North Carolina (16) and Georgia are both projected for Trump. If Harris loses any of the northern swing states – namely Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania – her path to the presidency is non-existent. Harris 187, Trump 230. Ted Cruz kept his seat.
07:59 – What we knew for a while is now official: Donald Trump will become the second US President to serve non-consecutive terms, having reached the threshold of 270 electoral votes. He will become the 47th US President, with JD Vance, not long a Senator, becoming the 50th Vice-President.
Trump and Vance will take office on Monday 20 January next year. Some states are yet to declare, yet Trump is winning the popular vote by a margin of around 5 million (4 percentage points).
With thanks to Charlotte Ambrose, Eddie Atkinson, Morgan Grove, Sophie Sindrey, Gavin Southway, Connor Szulist for their contributions.