With a contest so confusing and complex as the one which happened this year, it’s hard to recount all the moments that made this controversial and topsy-turvy race what it has been.
1. 27th June 2024- The First Debate
Doubts about Joe Biden’s candidacy had been raised well beforehand, with Nancy Pelosi rumoured to have been leading efforts to replace him, but a poor performance at a CNN debate on 27th June elevated the Democrats’ concerns. Donald Trump, who had been leading Joe Biden in opinion polls consistently, basked in the glory of winning, while the Democrats were confused, and opinion shifted definitively against him staying in.
2. 13th July 2024 – Trump Shot
This was quite the surprise for all, when Trump gave a rally in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Questions were then asked about the Secret Service’s protection of the former President when the lone shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks shot Trump in the right ear, with photo reviews soon afterwards suggesting that had Trump not ducked, the bullet may have hit his skull.
Even now the motive remains under investigation, and with Trump’s raised fist with the stars and stripes flying in the air above him, the photo was shared worldwide, attracting Elon Musk’s endorsement. With his ownership of X, Musk’s influence suggested he might have a top job in a potential – likely at this point – Trump cabinet.
3. 15th July 2024 – Republican Convention
With delegates with their right ears covered in plaster in solidarity with Trump, it was no surprise that the jubilant Republicans re-elected their 2016 and 2020 nominee for this round. With 76% of the primary vote, Republicans calmly elected him once more.
Much more surprising was his selection of JD Vance, an Ohio senator who aligns with him politically, as his running mate. The traditional thinking around running mate selections is to pick a candidate who comes from the other side of your party or who opposes you – in 2016 thrice-divorced Trump picked conservative Christian and anti-abortion Mike Pence to convince free voters. Vance had been touted to be the successor to the MAGA campaign, and his candidacy was seen as appealing to a voter group Trump already had in the bag.
4. 21th July 2024 – Biden Drops Out
A jubilant Trump re-elected, opinion polls tanking. It looked like a walk in the park for Trump, which convinced Biden to finally yield to Democrats within his party and withdraw his candidacy.
He became the first candidate to withdraw from the race after winning the primaries, and quickly endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris to succeed him.
5. 22th July 2024 – “brat” Kamala Takes the Nomination
The 2024 Democratic perspective on the race might be: “it’s not over until it’s over.” Some opinion polls on her VP performance had sometimes put her as poor as, if not worse than, Joe Biden. However, polls quickly changed after her candidacy and the US changed its assessment of her.
2024 may well be best remembered as the “brat summer” after Charli XCX, the artist who released the album Brat, endorsed Harris and her iconic album cover, black text on a neon green background, became a Democrat-friendly meme. It was a good summer for Harris, which gave Democrats confidence that they might have changed the narrative.
6. 5th August 2024 – Tim Walz Becomes Harris’ Running Mate
It had been reported the day before that Harris’ long-anticipated running mate announcement was between two people – Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor and largely expected to be the favourite – the popular governor of the most undecidable of all swing states in Pennsylvania – and someone who contrasted Harris’ image as a progressive.
In the end, she went with the other one – Tim Walz – the governor of Minnesota, a safe Democratic state who was considered to the left of the party, who had made headlines for calling the Republicans “weird”. On stage, they had a father-daughter chemistry (though they’re near enough the same age) which worked well. It was more successful than many commentators had expected.
7. 10th September 2024 – “They’re eating the dogs”
A myth among the MAGA crowd that Haitian immigrants were: “eating the pets of the people that live there” in Springfield, Ohio, had been amplified by JD Vance, and somehow made its way into the presidential debate rerun on ABC. Trump’s quote of: “they’re eating the dogs, the people that came in, they’re eating the cats, they’re eating – they’re eating the pets of the people that live there” was turned into a parody song by South African artist The Kiffness, encapsulating the bizarreness of the quip, and adding to the perception that Trump was losing the argument, and potentially the race.
8. 27th October 2024 – A garbage performance for both sides
An awkward joke by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe describing the US territory of Puerto Rico (which does not get to vote in the election) as a: “floating island of garbage” led President Biden to quip that: “the only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters” – leading some to compare it to Hillary Clinton infamously calling Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables” in 2016.
Whatever happens tonight will be the end of two full months of campaigning, and the end of the most expensive election in US history, and one of its most historic and consequential.