Wrecking the Republican Race

When Mitt Romney awoke on the 1st of February, he could be forgiven for feeling that the end was in sight. The debate over his tax returns had faded; Newt Gingrich had been engulfed in his own scandal while Ron Paul and Rick Santorum looked as irrelevant as ever. Yet Romney’s commanding position had come at a cost; his negative campaign strengthening his position within the Republican primary at the expense of national appeal. It was a scenario that must have made Gingrich’s “46 states to go” message seem more than just a little troubling.

On the other side of the country, there was one place in particular where Gingrich’s defiance would have been met with glee. For Barack Obama, nothing could be better than seeing the tit for tat ‘anyone but him’ encounter between Gingrich and Romney rumble on, with both candidates doing their utmost to sully the other’s name.

It’s a tactic that has given Romney the edge over his rival. Gingrich’s poll ratings plummeted in the run up to the Iowa caucus as he was subjected to a media bombardment, with 45% of political advertisements directed against him. It is a bashing that Gingrich has struggled to recover from, and despite his win in South Carolina, Romney’s big spending in Florida saw him surge ahead of his main rival once more with tales of his links to Freddie Mac and ethics violation dominating the airwaves.

As one reporter put it, “sometimes antagonism can be a more powerful force than liking somebody.” Unfortunately for Romney, that is a force that can work both ways.

While his mudslinging approach has brought him success, it has come at a price. Romney’s image has suffered with accusations of being a wall street insider, corporate robot and a member of the elite totally out of sync with the working American (an accusation not helped by his rather unfortunate “I don’t care about the poor” comment).

Such a line of attack has done little for the likeability of either candidate. A CNN poll from the 14th of February showed that Romney’s favourability among Republicans has dropped by 13% in the last month while he now languishes at 34% among Americans (16% behind the President). For Gingrich the situation is even worse. With most of the dirt being thrown in his direction, he has seen his popularity among Americans drop to just 25% whilst falling behind Santorum in the race for the nomination.

Santorum’s recent resurgence is not entirely a surprise in the face of such a negative campaign. With Gingrich seeming Romney’s most likely challenger (except in Iowa), Santorum has so far been spared the bombardment that has been unleashed on the former Speaker of the House. Yet his victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri exposed an alarming trend for Mitt Romney.

Though voter turnout has hardly been high throughout the primaries, it has fallen to a new low. With less than 2% of eligible voters casting their ballots in Nevada, Colorado, and Minnesota as well as Missouri seeing a 60% drop from those who voted in 2008, the question for Romney is whether he can motivate people to vote for him, rather than simply against someone else.

If Romney’s negativity has left voters somewhat disenchanted, Santorum’s ‘Rombo’ Romney shows no sign of heeding any such warning. Add to that, Gingrich’s talk of yet another comeback shows there is plenty of dirt yet to be tossed around in this race. While it may improve candidates’ prospects within the Republican bubble, it is hardly likely to endear them to the American public. Unfortunately for the nominee, they will face a man who has based his career on doing that very thing.