The deteriorating situation in Syria has once again presented world leaders with the regrettable task of deciding how many murdered civilians can be ignored before international intervention takes place in yet another troubled nation.
Syria’s state brutality has been well documented and daily news of an escalating series of massacres, assassinations and bombings trickle through cyberspace onto the Twitter feeds of concerned citizens around the world. The West appears ready to act but is seemingly being held back by Russia’s reluctant president Vladimir Putin, who is eager to stay loyal to Syria’s vicious premier Bashar al-Assad.
Certainly, that is the simplified description of the ongoing stalemate Western diplomats would like us all to believe. It is undoubtedly time for the world to act in Syria but the aforementioned depiction of the crisis is unhelpful when attempting to rouse support for global action. Like all major conflicts, the integrity of the opposing sides is rather greyer than the black and white observations we are frequently presented with.
Indeed, the West’s shamelessly hypocritical condemnation of the foreign policy of non-NATO states disrupts the negotiation process and perpetuates mutual distrust. Whilst it remains the case that Russia and China should do much more to stop the violence, they have not forgotten our failings in Rwanda, Iraq and Afghanistan and are rightly cautious of another poorly designed peacekeeping mission.
There are, however, twinges of imperial nostalgia in Russia’s protection of Syria. They are in Russia’s sphere of influence and it does not like NATO’s intrusion. In the same way Rwanda was in the Francophone sphere and Gaddafi’s Libya and Mubarak’s Egypt were in the Anglophone sphere, Russia’s relationship with Syria is riddled with Cold War loyalties that they are clearly reluctant to betray. Russia’s only naval base in the Mediterranean is situated in the Syrian port of Tartus and large weapons contracts have strengthened their military ties. Russia has a lot to lose.
Unnervingly, this observation is the first in a long list of similarities between pre-genocide Rwanda and modern day Syria that we ignore at our peril. Notwithstanding the lack of ethnic tension in Syria, we are observing the emergence of civil war after the breakdown of democratisation and Russia is providing arms and diplomatic protection for the Syrian government in the same way France did for the Rwandan Hutu forces in 1994. As Linda Melvern documents in her book Conspiracy to Murder, the Rwandan Genocide was carried out by French trained militias with Egyptian, Chinese and French weapons. Britain and the United States did everything they possibly could to stay out of the conflict, demanding conditions in the UN resolution, that actually resulted in aid agencies caring for the Hutu genocidaires on the Congolese border.
Oddly, even Kofi Annan has played a half-hearted diplomatic role once again. Whilst his actions had a more extreme consequence in 1994, he has once again sided with the West in producing a naive ceasefire plan. At least Syria has caught his attention. In 1994, he ignored the desperate requests of General Dallaire, the head of the UN force in Rwanda, for more troops to halt the killing.
Annan does, however, have an important role to play in ending the Syrian crisis. His team must do more to get Iran, Russia and China onside, distance themselves from the West and offer practical solutions to both factions. Rwanda is a terrifying reminder of the importance of international intervention. Whilst there are many differences between Rwanda and Syria, failing to act decisively is an option that must be avoided at all costs. Nobody involved wants to see a Russian Christine Shelly attempt to define the difference between acts of genocide whilst a Syrian Interahamwe roam the streets butchering civilians that oppose Assad’s regime.
The best we can hope for is a pragmatic compromise. The West has to accept that a few thousand murdered villagers does not justify Russia cutting diplomatic relations with Syria, promoting a form of government they do not practice and backing UN Security Council intervention in a friend’s territory. Russia, on the other hand, must use its sway with the Assad regime to push for political concessions, condemn the government’s brutality and suggest a Yemeni style change of president.
There is no easy solution and we will see many more bodies wrapped in blood stained linen before it even gets close to being resolved.