Preview: RBS Six Nations 2013

France

After a slow start to the year, the French squad has developed well under new coach Phillipe Saint-André and showed their true class during the Autumn Internationals. It looks like the petty squabbles that plagued them in previous years have been replaced by cohesion, and the old guard are gradually being replaced with fresh talent, as shown by Pascal Papé replacing Thierry Dusautoir as captain.

They are, without doubt, looking impressive and are the big contender for the championship. They are somewhat hampered by the prospect of three away games this year, including matches against England and Ireland, but Les Bleus should be able to weather most of the storms. Assuming, that is, that Phillipe Saint-André can keep the cohesion which the squad has lacked over the last few years.

With a theoretically easy start against Italy on Sunday, France should welcome Wales to Paris with an air of confidence. Get a win at home, and Twickenham may not be too daunting a challenge. After that, it’s off to Dublin for Ireland, then finishing at home against the Scots.

One to watch: Frédéric Michalak – he has firmly taken hold of the French number 10 shirt after impressive performances over the summer and autumn.

Prediction: 1st – no Grand Slam for Les Bleus this year, but I can see them outscoring England to take the championship. IF they play at full potential.

Ireland have had a rollercoaster of a year with a strong win against Argentina, near misses to South Africa and New Zealand, and crushing defeats at the hands of England and the All Blacks. Injuries to key individuals over the past year have opened up spaces for new talent to bolster the squad and rejuvenate the team.

This year, Ireland could easily be the dark horse of the tournament. While they have only two home games, these are against the two big teams, England and France, and the home advantage will be greatly appreciated. The return of the talismanic Brian O’Driscoll and the choice  between Sexton and O’Gara for number 10 will be enough to put doubt in the minds of their toughest opponents.

For Ireland, the key is confidence – if they can start well, they could take the tournament by surprise. Victory in Cardiff on Saturday is a must. If they manage that, then they will be ready for England the following week. If they lose it, they may risk burying their heads all over again. After England, they travel to Scotland, which they should expect to win, though not without a fight. They then have to prepare for the French onslaught, before ending away to the Italians.

One to watch: Simon Zebo – this 21-year-old speedster can play at both full back and wing and has been impressive for his club Munster.

Prediction: 3rd – Ireland could stop either France or England, but I can’t see them doing both.

Italy

Often seen as the soft team of the tournament, Italy have been steadily improving their game over the past few seasons. Their well deserved win over Scotland gave them fifth place last year which they followed later in the year with a three-win streak – their best since 1998 – and pushed Australia all the way.

This year they are seeking to up their game once more. They should be aiming to avoid the wooden spoon again this year, hoping to beat Scotland once again, they should also target Wales or Ireland, both of whom they face at home, though this may prove to be too big a challenge for the Azzurri.

Their opening match will be a tough one, a home match against the French. Some romantics may dream of a repeat of the shock 2011 upset in Rome, but that seems a farfetched prospect. They then travel to Scotland, and should be looking to take the win from this if they want to continue their improvement. Next come the Welsh to Rome which they should target as a best case scenario, they have done it before after all, especially if Wales are under confident. Then it’s to Twickenham, before hosting Ireland at the end.

One to watch: Sergio Parisse – the Italian captain has been Italy’s stand out player for years, and is one of the best no.8’s in Europe.

Prediction: 5th – They should be able to overcome Scotland, and full credit for their desire to target Wales and Ireland, but they are just a step behind for this to be realistic.

Scotland

Scotland have had a pretty poor year, failing to win any games in the Six Nations or the Autumn Internationals. Hopes were high following their win over Australia, leading to their 3-0 series win in the summer. However, slumping to defeat against Tonga was a step too far for coach Andy Robinson, who quit immediately after.

Up stepped Scott Johnson, a man with international coaching experience with Wales, USA and Australia. Is it too much to ask though? They have a tough opener, travelling down to Twickenham to take on the English, who will be looking to build a more solid foundation to their own campaign than they did last year.

They then face the Italians in Edinburgh, and this is their must win game. If they lose this, they will struggle to find any confidence to take against Ireland or Wales over  the following weeks, and then facing the daunting prospect of the French in Paris to finish.

One to watch: Tim Visser – the ‘Flying Dutchman’ scored twice in his debut against New Zealand. He could be the finisher Scotland have sorely missed in recent years.

Prediction: 6th – While they could take on the Italians and win, Scotland seemed to stagnate and regress throughout last year, while Italy keep marching on. A second consecutive wooden spoon seems likely.

Wales

After their Grand Slam last year, all the expectations were with Wales. They failed to deliver in every game since, and enter the tournament on a seven match losing streak.

Wales are without their puppet master Warren Gatland as he goes off as Lions Coach. There is still the same potential in the squad as there was this time last year, they just need to hit the ground running. Victory against Ireland is a must if they fancy themselves as contenders. Confidence has always been an issue for the Welsh, so they have to get off to a good start, especially with an away match in Paris the following week. Trips to Rome and Scotland won’t be as easy with both sides looking to take advantage of the wounded Dragon. They finish by hosting England at the Millennium stadium which is always an event unto itself.

One to watch: Justin Tipuric – a true out and out 7 and brilliant footballer. With Lydiate and Ryan Jones out injured, he may get a start at 7 with captain Sam Warburton moved to 6.

Prediction: 4th – Wales have the potential and skill to be a challenger. However, their injuries may set them back at the wrong time, and no-one is completely sure if Rob Howley is the man to unleash all the potential they have.

So there you have it, my overall predictions for the tournament. The Six Nations kicks off Saturday with Wales v Ireland at 13:30, followed by England v Scotland at 16:00. Italy and France launch their campaigns at 15:00 on Sunday. All matches will be broadcast live on BBC1.